Fire RileTier 1
at G3 DTR Store Championship
decks
5
(33.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
13-7-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.9%
avg ELO +5.3 per match
expected value
55.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1360
· median 1385
· range 1279–1437
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1090
Q1 1269
Q3 1393
1446
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 13.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.2% | +3.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 6.7% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 51.1% | +0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.7% | +20.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Reduce to Ash, Heavenly Guide. Losers more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Viridian Protective Trinket, Smoke Bombs.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Evercurrent Raider
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Smoke Bombs
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 96 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 77 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dungeon Guide | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |